Oranje Look to Shed Underachiever Tag
Saumyajit Ray dives deep into analyzing prospects of Dutch squad.
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They come, they see, they enthrall, they fight (sometimes among themselves), but they seldom conquer. They are the perennial bridesmaid of International tournaments. They are arguably the most popular 2nd team amongst football fans. They are known to produce the most colourful characters on the football field, and the most colourful support off it. Their football has been described as “neurotic genius”. They are the Oranje, and they will grace Poland and Ukraine this summer with their usual share of class, charisma and colour.
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Form
The Dutch come into the tournament as one of the favourites along with Spain and Germany on the back of an impressive run of results over the last two years. They had an impressive World Cup 2010 where they missed out being champions by the finest of margins, losing out in the final to the current superpower of world football, Spain, in extra time. They carried that form into the Euro Qualifiers and waltzed through their group in style winning their first 9 matches with a goal difference of +30. But beneath the surface, there are a few doubts as to whether they are as good as their pre-tournament billing suggests. Although the loss to Sweden in the final qualifying game, a dead rubber, could be brushed aside as an aberration, the subsequent 3-0 friendly defeat to arch rivals Germany could not be. A 0-0 draw with Switzerland prior to the Germany game had sown seeds of doubt in the Dutch supporters’ minds, with Switzerland rendering the Dutch attacking threat impotent by mirroring the 4-2-3-1 formation favoured by the current manager, Bert van Marwijk. The Germans gave them a thorough schooling and raised questions as to whether this team could really cut the mustard against the very best, viz. Germany and Spain. Although a subsequent 3-2 friendly win over England at Wembley restored some confidence, it was not the most convincing of wins with victory being sealed only with an injury time winner.
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Approach
Bert van Marwijk’s side is not the traditional Holland team that plays an attacking 4-3-3 with frequent interchanging of positions. Nor is he, in some ways, the traditional Holland manager. Dutch managers have often been radical thinkers of the game; they also have frequently been charismatic, outspoken figures. Rinus Michel, Johan Cruyff, Luis van Gaal, Frank Rijkaard fit either one or both of the stereotypes. Bert in contrast is a much more understated, sedate character with a reputation for building disciplined, hard working, mentally strong teams that are tough to beat. As a successful manager at the topmost level it goes without saying that he knows his tactics, but his tactics are more often effective rather than radical and mind blowing.
Bert picked up Marco van Basten’s 4-2-3-1 template from Euro 2008, gave it a more solid, reliable shape and surprised the world in World Cup 2010 with a Dutch side not as flamboyant, but more adept at getting the job done than some of their more illustrious predecessors. There was widespread argument among the Dutch about whether Bert was moving away from the Dutch philosophy with none other than Johan Cruyff declaring that their football was “ugly, vulgar, hard, hermetic, hardly eye-catching, hardly football”. However, what no one could dispute was the fact that Bert had brought the nation closer than ever before to winning the big cup.
At present Bert uses two variants of the 4-2-3-1, one with two out and out holding midfielders typically used against strong sides and the other with one holding midfielder and one deep lying playmaker deployed against weak sides or when chasing a game. In the Euro qualifiers he has used the latter to notch up impressive wins against the likes of Moldova, Hungary and in the home match against Sweden. The former approach though, came unstuck against the Germans who were happy to sit back when not in possession, draw the Dutch out and exploit the spaces to devastating effect on turnovers. Having been drawn into the Group of Death, the Dutch will probably not play a single weak side in the tournament, so expect the defensive 4-2-3-1 to be the default formation, with Bert changing things only in a do or die situation. The friendly matches just ahead of the tournament will provide an interesting peek into any possible tactical adjustments Bert might make to his default 4-2-3-1 for the Euros.
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Personnel
Goalkeepers – The Dutch are well stocked in this department. Maarten Stekelenberg, one of the best keepers of World Cup 2010 and Bert’s preferred choice for the Qualifiers should recover in time from a shoulder injury sustained recently and is the obvious pick. Tim Krul of Newcastle and Michel Vorm of Swansea will clinch the other two spots on the back of impressive seasons in the English Premier League. I would expect Stekelenberg to hold on to the number one position for the tournament with Krul just shading Vorm as the second choice.
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Defenders – At the centre of defence the tried and tested pairing of John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen is expected to be the first choice. Although not considered amongst the very best individually they have worked well as a pair under Bert. Ron Vlaar of Feyenoord should be the experienced back up; in the absence of standout options for this position, Bert may not opt for another out and out centre back but look to cover an injury crisis with versatile options selected primarily for other positions.
At Right Back Gregory van der Wiel should remain first choice in spite of a slightly underwhelming season with Ajax. The experienced Khalid Boulahrouz of Stuttgart, who can also double up in the centre of defence, should be his understudy.
The Left Back position poses a problem, with Bert’s preferred choice, Erik Pieters of PSV, ruled out due to injury. In the absence of any other standout option in this position I would expect the versatile duo of Vurnon Anita of Ajax who can also operate as a winger, and Wilfred Bouma of PSV who can also cover for the centre back position to make the cut for the final 23. Young Jetro Willems of PSV, uncapped at this level, is likely to miss out.
The defence looks weak on paper, but unfortunately the current Dutch generation has not produced world class defenders. The unit as a whole needs to perform better than the sum of its parts.
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Midfielders – With Bert expected to go with two holding midfielders as his default starting option, there should be four players in the squad for this position. Mark van Bommel, the captain, selects himself. Kevin Strootman of PSV should take up the starting spot alongside him. Nigel de Jong, having fallen out of favour since the World Cup 2010 where his showing was memorable for both the right and wrong reasons, should only be a back up along with Stijn Schaars, who can also double up as a defensive option at Left Back if needed.
Although his stock has fallen a bit since his dream 2009-10 season including the World Cup, Wesley Sneijder will be the first choice at the tip of the midfield trio. Raafael van der Vaart picks himself as Sneijder’s understudy, and should play the deep playmaker role in the variant of the default 4-2-3-1. Barcelona’s Ibrahim Afellay should round off the midfield selection. The uncapped Adam Maher of AZ may have to wait for the World Cup qualifiers to get his first crack at international football.
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Forwards – On the back of his dream season for Arsenal, Robin van Persie is an obvious pick. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, prolific for both Schalke and Holland, will also select himself. Robben is the obvious pick at right wing. Bert may be tempted to field his three most potent weapons together, in which case he may use Robin van Persie on the left wing to accommodate Huntelaar in the starting eleven along with Robben. Jeremain Lens of PSV should make the cut as the third centre forward providing a more pacy option as well as being an emergency winger. Uncapped Luciano Narsingh of Heerenveen should get on the plane as a surprise package for the opponents with his trickery and vision on the wings. For the remaining spot I expect Bert to keep faith in the reliability, versatility and experience of Dirk Kuyt for the tournament and have Anita provide emergency cover at left wing with the de Jong siblings, Luuk of Twente and Siem of Ajax, making way.
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Predicted Squad
Goalkeepers: Stekelenburg, Krul, Vorm
Defenders: Heitinga, Mathijsen, Van der Wiel, Vlaar, Boulahrouz, Anita, Bouma
Midfielders: Van Bommel, Strootman, Nigel de Jong, Schaars, Van der Vaart, Sneijder, Afellay,
Forwards: Huntelaar, Van Persie, Robben, Lens, Kuyt, Narsingh
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Prediction
Now for the most interesting bit; looking into the crystal ball or feeding the octopus. But unfortunately I neither own a crystal ball nor an octopus; hence I would try to gaze into the future wearing my Optimist, Pessimist and Realist hats.
Holland has been drawn into the toughest of the Groups of Death in recent memory along with Germany, Portugal and Denmark. We all know about the pedigree of the current German side. Portugal have several top players including one of the best ever in Ronaldo and have been a bit of a bogey team for the Dutch in recent years. The Danes are no pushovers either having topped Portugal in Qualifying. The pessimist in me says that Holland may find the group tough to negotiate and might not qualify for the later stages.
However if they negotiate the group stages they will face one of Czech Republic, Greece, Poland or Russia in the quarters, which is a game they should be winning. The realist in me sees them qualify behind Germany, negotiate the easier Quarter Final to meet Spain in the Semis who will prove too strong for them.
The optimist in me of course can already see van Bommel lifting the cup in Kiev on July 1st having topped the group, beaten Italy in the Semis and laid to rest the ghost of 2010 by overwhelming Spain in the Final.
A fantastic one from Saumyajit.
Superbly written article. The dutchmen have always played enthralling football. They are notoriously underachieving and this time around have been drawn into a very tough group. I have this feeling that they will make it to the semis. I will refrain from further predictions about them but I do have this overwhelming gut feeling that the cup is going to Germany this year. 🙂